Why Should Delaware Care?
Delaware’s population has grown 4% since 2020, according to Census numbers, with many of those new residents moving to Kent and Sussex counties. But such rapid development in Delaware could bring new burdens on state infrastructure and services as well.
Delaware is growing, and it’s growing quickly.
The First State’s population jumped 4% between 2020 and 2023, according to Census estimates, reaching an estimated total population of more than 1 million for the first time. Delaware ranked the sixth fastest growing state nationwide and the fastest growing in the Northeast corridor last year, with an estimated increase of 1.2%, according to the Census bureau.
All of those new arrivals are driving a booming housing market, where the median home sale topped $389,000 in June, a 4.5% increase over the prior year, according to the Delaware Association of Realtors. It’s also led to a spike in new home construction, seeking to take advantage of the interest in the Delaware market.
Since 2021, Delaware’s Preliminary Land Use Service (PLUS) has considered adding more than 25,000 new homes statewide to house these new Delawareans.
Many of these new homes are coming to Kent and Sussex counties, with a focus on single-family homes sold at current market prices.
According to Census data, Delaware homes have an average of two and a half residents, meaning if all of the state’s proposed homes see settlement, it could increase Delaware’s population by 6%.
Where’s the growth?
Development in Delaware has increasingly moved south, with about 14,000 of them planned for Sussex County and 6,300 proposed in Kent County.
PLUS reviews all of these developments before they make their way to counties for consideration. The board meets once a month and hosts all of Delaware’s major state agencies to give code requirements and raise concerns around the projects ranging from transportation to environmental protection.
In a review of meeting minutes from 2021 to its most recent meeting, PLUS reviewed 49 new developments with more than 200 homes. If all of these developments are completed, they would bring 24,853 new homes to Delaware, with an average development size of 507 units.
One development in Laurel would bring more than 2,400 homes to the area. Its application shows plans for single-family and multi-family homes, as well as townhomes and villas, all in one subdivision.
Other towns like Frederica and Milton would see their populations double if all of the development goes according to plan.
Right now, there are five subdivisions each looking to build more than 1,000 homes. Developments in Camden, Frederica, Laurel and Milton plan to add a combined 7,774 homes to their respective communities.
Why build so many houses?
When it comes to these major developments, the size and scope is often brought to the forefront of the conversation. But volume is not always a bad thing, according to Mitch Haskell, a sales manager for Bay to Beach Builders.
Bay to Beach Builders is a custom homebuilder, meaning it doesn’t produce at the same rate as national homebuilders like Ryan Homes, K. Hovnanian or Lennar or even major regional developers like Schell Brothers, Benchmark Builders and Capano Residential. Yet when it comes to these major developments, Haskell said developers are able to spread their costs out over hundreds of homes.
He said that volume of development may allow developers to bring their prices down since there’s a larger supply for consumers.
Haskell also said Sussex County is an area with multiple demands. Builders are trying to accommodate for a growing retiree population, as well as provide affordable options for the community’s workforce.
“That’s the hard part,” Haskell said. “There’s not a lot of housing for them.”
A changing demographic
By virtue of its new arrivals, Delaware also is getting older. Census reports show the median age in Delaware was 41.5 in 2022, which is a five and a half year jump since 2000.
According to a study from United Van Lines, 28% of people who moved to Delaware in 2023 came to retire. Another report from Bankrate found Delaware was the best state for retirement based on affordability, health care, crime, weather and well-being.
The changing demographic of the First State is something Daniel Blevins pays close attention to. He is a principal planner at WILMAPCO, a regional transportation planning organization in New Castle, as well as the vice-chair of Delaware’s Population Consortium.
Delaware’s 65 and older population has boomed in recent years, particularly in Sussex County, according to data submitted to the consortium. It shows nearly 50,000 of the 124,000 people who’ve moved to Sussex County since 1990 are 65 or older.
It also estimated that by 2050 there would be more than 25,000 people older than 85 living in the county. To date, developers have built or plan to build more than 3,500 homes in age-restricted communities exclusively meant for people older than 55.
He said that as all Baby Boomers turn 60, retirements are going to increase with them. What comes with that is people looking for a small-town feel and somewhere with mobility. But another part of aging Blevins said retirees want is the option to “age in place.”
What’s affordable?
With many of the state’s new developments working their way through PLUS and county councils, affordable housing is a footnote.
Some of the major developments have committed to building affordable options within the subdivisions, but many of the new developments will sell market-value homes, right as Delaware’s median home price reached near $400,000.
As of Tuesday, there were nearly 2,600 homes for sale in Delaware via Zillow, yet fewer than a fifth of them were listed for $400,000 or less. There were fewer than 100 single-family homes available statewide for $250,000 or less.
Those booming real estate valuations, coupled with mortgage interest rates that remain nearly double what they were in recent years, have priced many families out of the market and exacerbated a housing crisis.
Delaware is grappling with a shortage of nearly 20,000 affordable housing units, according to a state housing assessment published last year, yet private development interests have shown little interest in aiding the disparity.
While the General Assembly recently passed bills encouraging more affordable housing development, progress will be slow in the near term.