Why Should Delaware Care?
For decades, Delaware has been one of the bluest of all Democratic states, and soon lawmakers may have a supermajority. That leaves the minority Republican Party to select candidates it thinks have the best chances of winning, even if that means those candidates have also played politics for the other side in the past.
While Delaware’s primary election next week will once again feature progressives challenging incumbent Democrats, Republicans may also hold a referendum of sorts on the future of their state party.
The GOP, which has struggled to regain its footing for at least the past decade in statewide races, will head to polls to select candidates to challenge sitting Democratic incumbents for U.S. Senate and House seats this November — and party leaders have endorsed two curious picks: former Democrats.
If successful, the candidacies of Dr. Mike Katz and the Rev. Earl Cooper could be signs of moderation for the Delaware Republican Party as it attempts to win over independents in November.
But other candidates have increasingly decried the state party nominations as insufficiently conservative, a move that could splinter an already dwindling Republican base.
While the state GOP, the Independent Party of Delaware and former Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Julianne Murray have backed Katz, state Sen. Bryant Richardson (R-Seaford) and Rep. Lyndon Yearick (R-Camden) have backed his primary opponent John Shulli, a retired Army colonel.
Who Republican voters ultimately pick to represent the party will be a closely watched vote.
“You’re seeing a battle of two strategies,” Shulli told Spotlight Delaware. “I’m going with the strategy of, ‘Declare yourself as a Republican.’ Put ‘Republican’ on your signs. Don’t be camouflaged about your policies. Be brave to be a conservative.”
Shulli did not earn the party’s nomination, but he has secured the endorsement of former Trump advisor and retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. And now his campaign is highlighting Katz’s record as an elected Democratic official and then a candidate with the Independent Party of Delaware to attract more right-leaning voters.
“That clash is happening right now,” Shulli said. “It’s healthy. The Republican Party will learn from this. And, depending on how the solution comes out in November, they will change.”
Katz served as a Democratic state senator, representing a portion of northern New Castle County, from 2009 to 2013. He is also a former business owner and pediatric physician and anesthesiologist.
Katz said his “landslide victory” in earning the favor of Delaware Republican delegates at the convention this past spring is directly due to his already established bipartisan relationships across the state.
“I take no corporate or special interest money, no PAC money, which differentiates me significantly from Chris Coons,” he said. “That shows that my only allegiance is to Delaware and all Delawareans. When I served in the State Senate, a lot of my work I did as a Democrat was with Republicans.”
Permission to change?
Both Katz and Cooper said it has been the Democratic Party that changed over the years, not their values.
“I’ve been a conservative person for the last 43 years,” Cooper said in a phone interview this week, pointing to his focus on “social issues” highlighted by an anti-trans stance.
He said he believed he earned the party’s nomination “for making conservative-minded thoughts” and as an “inclusive” representative of the party, not necessarily as a more moderate option.
But comment sections on the party’s and Katz’s campaign Facebook pages are filled with questions about Katz or Cooper’s past affiliations, illustrating that some Republican voters might not be so open-minded about the change of heart.
“Wondering which party he’ll be in next year,” one Facebook user wrote on a recent post on Katz’s page.
“LOL the ‘only true conservative’ in the GOP primary was a Democrat less than 2 years ago,” another wrote.
Still, others like Murray, a former state GOP chair, have pointed to former President Ronald Reagan and President Donald Trump as notable examples of politicians who have changed parties and yet still were successfully elected.
“The major beef [against Katz] is he’s not Republican enough,” Murray told Spotlight Delaware. “What the hell does that mean? He got 82% of the party delegates. That’s not a good argument.”
A numerical disadvantage
Katz’s campaign advertisements invoke the last two Republicans to serve as elected governor, Pete du Pont IV and Mike Castle, more than 30 years ago.
The message hearkens to their era’s approach: Republican candidates must appeal to more moderate or liberal voters if they hope to stand a chance at beating a Democrat in an overall blue state.
But Murray hesitated at the idea that this year’s former Democrats-turned-Republican nominations were intentionally selected as a means toward that end.
“Delaware is a tough state for Republicans,” she said. “You have to look at a candidate and the potential winnability. And if that person has the plan, and I think Katz does, then that’s who you put your support behind.”
This year’s “electability” factor may have even less to do with loyalty to the party than in years past.
Since January, Delaware has gained some 6,200 registered voters, according to state voter registration data. But both the Republican and Democratic parties have lost some 2,000-plus registered voters statewide in that same time period.
Republicans now account for less than 25% of all registered voters in the First State — a decline since President Donald Trump’s first term. In 2016, registered Republicans accounted for nearly 29% of total voters, according to state voter registration data.
Those declining party registration numbers are part a byproduct of Delaware’s automatic voter registration through the Division of Motor Vehicles, which often leads, intentionally or not, to new independent voters. But it is also a reflection of changing attitudes around party identity too.
Even the obscure Mandalorians of Delaware Party added more registered voters than it lost this year. Third-party options, like unaffiliated voters or the Mandalorians, now account for more than 275,000 registered voters in Delaware.
There are more registered voters that have no party affiliation than there are registered Republicans in Delaware. Still, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 131,653 voters statewide, as of this month.
“Delawareans are moving away from that allegiance to that specific party,” Katz said in a phone interview just a week ahead of the primary. “And my focus is on serving Delawareans, it’s not on serving an organization.”
Cooper also remained focused on the issues — largely education and infrastructure — rather than the GOP’s political strategy in an overwhelmingly blue state. He will face off with more MAGA-presenting candidates Joseph Armino and John Whalen III in the primary for U.S. House.
Whether the options fuel division between traditional conservatives and MAGA supporters in the state or simply represent a natural mix of choices on the ballot remains to be seen.
But history indicates that whoever emerges victorious will face an uphill battle against incumbent Rep. Sarah McBride, who is the first openly transgender legislator ever elected to Congress and comes into her first reelection campaign with more than $2.6 million in campaign funds.
The winner of the Katz-Shulli race for Senate also faces a significant funding disadvantage.
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Chris Coons, who is likely to prevail in a contested primary next week, has more than $4.7 million on hand for a general election campaign.
Both Katz and Shulli have essentially self-funded their campaigns so far, loaning their operations nearly $130,000 and $100,000, respectively. They have raised less than $50,000 combined from other donors as of Aug. 26.
Divisiveness across the aisle
Divisiveness among state Democrats festering in recent years leaves an opening for state politics to balance with a sort of “self correction,” said Samuel Hoff, a political historian, author and Delaware State University professor emeritus.
“I don’t think there will be a perpetual Democratic majority forever,” he said.
But Delaware’s reign as “one of the bluest of Democratic states” hasn’t changed just yet, though, he added.
“What could do it is a split in the Democratic Party,” he said. “And we’ve seen some interesting upsets over the last cycle with progressives in this state.”
There may be more waves of division to be found in Delaware between liberal moderates and progressives, than among state Republicans, he noted.
But just as there are “never Trumpers” in the Republican party, so, too, are there voters on both sides that will oppose a candidate for changing their party affiliation. But to longtime Delaware Republicans like Murray, turning a high-level elected office red is all that should matter to conservative voters in the end.
“You really do have to look at the big picture here,” said Murray, who unsuccessfully ran as a Republican for governor and attorney general in 2020 and 2022, and declined to make a second run for the latter this year. “If you have a candidate who can’t win in the general, to me that’s a waste.”
